GOOG I-Watch

11/18/2005

Nov 18 - Fridays

Another Friday of shoulda, coulda, wouldas to fuel impatience at the end of another week. AMZN & YHOO zoom to 52 wk highs to round out this tech rally. But little momo today apart from MRVL, CHDX, DITC. UARM's IPO a disappointment considering it was hyped like BOT and BIDU. VRA moved late and fast on news its drug could treat bird flu. Would short it if it wasn't already so cheap.

Sold CNTF 12.75-13.25, coulda bought this momo play at 10.25 but cancelled the order. Sold LTON 11.70-11.20, shoulda waited on this china play to be sure new money would come. ADSK was the breakdown of the day, but the chart looked too bullish. Short GPS 17 and HLTH 7 on disappointing numbers & lowered guidance. Surprise came as HLTH announced a share buy back. A slick but obviously desperate move. Short BIOM 1.75 on an apparent day late pop on vaccine trial update.

11/17/2005

Nov 17 - ...and higher

Solid green across the board in PM, then the tech bellwethers held their gains or like GOOG, did better. Big gainers were CESV and KLIC, both running into the close. ELN climbing AH on news from the FDA. The media has been intent on turning public opinion against hedge funds, headlining the Bayous and Wood Rivers and decrying the secrecy. The latest tactic is 'discovering' a herd mentality among less experienced (and apparently less secretive) managers. If one exists then we can anticipate the herd's next move with their favorite tech holdings, GOOG and AAPL. Sometime before Christmas when this rally peaks, expect them to short, dump, and buy back those shares. Should be quick, dramatic, hugely profitable and, of course, a bizarre mystery to the media. Finally, some strange advice on how to start a hedge fund apparently with no confidence, since 'more than nine out of 10 hedge funds fail.'

Few short daytrades out there for brave bears to pounce on. Biggest losers SAH, SKS, ADIC were reluctant to give up much. TARO was the exception but there were no shares to short below 17. Long CNTF 12.75, a day late but it's hard to lose in this market. Long LTON 11.70 on strong earnings and Chinese wireless being white hot at the moment. But institutions spent all day unloading LTON, and will miss the 52-week high.

11/16/2005

Nov 16 - 52 week highs...

A huge day as the 'tech rally' tops off with MSFT at 27.75, GOOG near 400, AAPL at 65, even YHOO at 40. Other big gainers were mixed, ATEA bounced off its dma to print another doji star, while CNTF jumped above its line on strong earnings. HORC rebounding but on precarious vol. IFO still being pushed to dizzying new heights in the same manner. Left behind are domestic auto makers and airlines, their shares having sunk to 1987 levels. Simultaneous boom and bust?

Speaking of losers, BCSI faked a reverse on a broad sell-off, SFCC gave up 10 points in an hour to win the spectacular-explosion-of-the-week award. Covered UTSI 9-7.30, probably the best short opp of the week after SFCC. Still waiting for this rally to produce a huge once-in-a-quarter momo play. That's not asking too much with still over six weeks left.

11/15/2005

Nov 15 - Full blown ...

CPST didn't give away much in the way of big trades, at least not like CAFE. Tried to scalp some with little patience or success. Shorted TRMM 8-7. Short UTSI 9 on some exotic billion-dollar contract rumor, later set straight by a PR for a pilot deal with China Telecom. Stock was halted for several suspense filled hours only to gap down AH on high vol. Still pays to short the hype.

11/14/2005

Nov 14 - Consolidating the top

Forget about due diligence, Buffett just goes with his gut. Here's more China-as-superpower nonsense, this time from a random sampling of America. The dead giveaway are the 30% who think Japan is about to overtake the US. Flash back to 1989, when Japan was about to overtake the US. Some things never change. What's different this time is that Japan (and China eventually) is about to experience negative population growth. Considering that there could be half a billion Americans in 35 years, that would be one helluva accomplishment in productivity. Maybe then the island's rapidly aging population will be surreptitiously replaced with life-like robots able to be 4-5x more productive than the American. Just maybe.

Back in the land of real growth, the number of derivatives traders is growing fast, along with the likelihood of shenanigans and a coming crisis. My best trade this year was buying LEXR at 3 on March 23, watching it shoot up AH on the court ruling against Toshiba and selling the next day at around 7.

Sold IFO 9-9.95 but failed to short the top. Covered BITS 4-3.70. Two amazing morning & afternoon short opps in PPTV and CTTYC. CPST flying AH, NGAS reports earnings.

11/13/2005

Week of Nov 13 - Bring lots of powder

Time to start clearing slots on the watchlists in preparation for the full force of this 'bull' market. Amazing how attached one becomes to the one-trick symbols, perhaps the emotional precurser to growing attached to a position. Avoid this at all cost, along with the talking heads and slick Street analysts. Focus on the breakouts, the breakdowns and a market that's poised to move big and fast in coming days.

The endgame stock to watch is MSFT, which tracks the Naz like no other tech bellwether. With two major products in the pipeline, its prospects are a natural draw for tech bulls. But Google looks ready to release a bundle of pain as it teams up with Firefox, the #2 browser. The softies are obviously concerned. Rumors that Google may actually relocate to Seattle would be about as direct as direct challenges go. The problem with GOOG is that the young company's rapid growth doesn't seem to measure anything apart from itself, let alone benefit anyone else. In fact, it grows at the apparent expense of others, grabbing for a bigger slice of the same tech pie. Sorry Bill Gates, but even your business is a zero sum game.