GOOG I-Watch

10/28/2005

Oct. 28 - Zero sum (a)gain

A week of indecision to give bears pause and comfort to anxious bulls. Fueling the confusion and today's rebound was surprisingly strong Q3 growth. Tech historically revs up at year end but some are predicting an actual comeback.

Short opps at open were IRF and UHCO. Covered IVGN 63-61 after it refused to plunge into the 50s as anticipated. Market also propped up CSTR impressively on Wal-Mart pilot deal, earning a spot on the short wl at this height. MMUS was the huge gainer today as traders took advantage of its low float.

10/27/2005

Oct. 27 - Market dons bear costume

Down trend resumes amid GM's pension woes with more spectacular breakdowns and fewer breakouts, DRIV, DRTK, ORCH leading the former. Some are betting that today was a buying opp. For those who prefer to bet on a sure thing, better to wait to see if 'cheap' gets cheaper.

Motto for Oct is 'better short than sorry.' Shorted IVGN 63 in AH on lowered earnings and guidance. Tried to short DECK but no shares left. Covered CREE 25.60-23.80. On the wl: CSTR, ZRAN, OPWV, ARBA.

10/26/2005

Oct. 26 - Stuck in neutral

Still waiting for a decision from this market. Interesting thoughts from a technical trader. Some are denying it but inflation is a problem.

Brief action in SIMG and SNTO for a few scalps, while bird flu plays continue to be volatile. Covered FLEX 10.50-9, shorted LIFC 16.25- thought the trade turned bad when it reversed to 17. However, a weak close and a macabre warning from the FDA could knock it down some more.

10/25/2005

Oct. 25 - Halloween days

NVAX led the bird flu plays (AVII,HEB,BCRX) with some frantic afternoon buying. Fun there is almost over. Shorted CNC 21-19, still holding CREE short. Shorted FLEX 10.50 in AH, expecting a continued slide on disappointing earnings. Should we be glad this cursed month is near its end?

10/24/2005

Oct. 24 - Nice, but will it last?

Impressive single day gains, but will the Bernanke Bounce continue? Decided to prepare for the worse, rather than get carried away by the euphoria. Shorted CREE from 25.60, MIPS 3.90-covered at breakeven (instit unloading did not do as much damage as in CREE), looked but found no short shares in ITWO. CD and GEHL had spectacular meltdowns early in the session. I'll continue to look for momo plays long and short on Tues.

10/23/2005

Week of Oct. 23 - Bad time to short?

Bulls and gurus are pointing to record levels of odd-lot and "ordinary investor" shorts as proof the market will rebound like last October. Nevermind that short interest on some ETFs has shot through the roof. And nevermind that bulls on Wed. morning held their collective breath. It was the anniversary of Oct. 19, 1987. Astonishing that in spite of war, plagues and a natural-disaster-of-the-week scenario unfolding, few "pros" are willing to come out and say the market is slouching toward recession. Of course, the Street's MO is to spot the bears only after they put a safe distance between themselves and the ordinary guy about to be trampled by the pack. Then it's official.

Naz is resting precariously on the 200dma, while the Dow has struggled to reach its 50dma. Long term chart suggests the Naz may have peaked in Aug. Until buyers make a showing (in more than just Google), I'll continue to short heavily until margin comes a callin. Friday short plays were GNSS 20-19 and NAFC 32-30. Short candidates on the wl: MIPS, CREE, GORX.