GOOG I-Watch

10/23/2005

Week of Oct. 23 - Bad time to short?

Bulls and gurus are pointing to record levels of odd-lot and "ordinary investor" shorts as proof the market will rebound like last October. Nevermind that short interest on some ETFs has shot through the roof. And nevermind that bulls on Wed. morning held their collective breath. It was the anniversary of Oct. 19, 1987. Astonishing that in spite of war, plagues and a natural-disaster-of-the-week scenario unfolding, few "pros" are willing to come out and say the market is slouching toward recession. Of course, the Street's MO is to spot the bears only after they put a safe distance between themselves and the ordinary guy about to be trampled by the pack. Then it's official.

Naz is resting precariously on the 200dma, while the Dow has struggled to reach its 50dma. Long term chart suggests the Naz may have peaked in Aug. Until buyers make a showing (in more than just Google), I'll continue to short heavily until margin comes a callin. Friday short plays were GNSS 20-19 and NAFC 32-30. Short candidates on the wl: MIPS, CREE, GORX.

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